The “Death & Debt” Dire Straits
[High Mortality – High Inflation/Shortages]

Unfortunately, this scenario is the most likely candidate. In this scenario, many areas will struggle with high rates of disease and death. To the extent that the U.S. dollar remains strong, many emerging market countries will feel the pain of having to choose between making dollar debt payments at a time when it is more difficult to earn dollars and more expensive to import energy and food. Families throughout the developed world will also feel the pain. Between death, disease, and financial stress from price inflation, numerous families, companies, and enterprises—even governments—will break down. Combine this with the intense effort to create civil war in the United States, and you have a recipe to overwhelm daily living with the fog of war and related heartbreak.

Given what it will take to navigate this scenario, you want to build as much resiliency as possible.

Probability: 80%